The seed drill market experienced a period of untimely decline in the first half of 2025. The latest published data on agricultural machinery purchase subsidies shows that the market has undergone a significant adjustment in the past five years, with sales plummeting and the industry landscape shifting.

Dismal market conditions: Sales plummeted 35% year-on-year, continuing to decline after the peak.

According to the latest subsidy data (as of August 8, 2025), the national sales of seed drills under subsidies in the first half of 2025 were only 81,147 units. This figure represents a significant 35% decrease compared to the same period in 2024! Looking back at the past five years, the market has been declining since its peak in 2023, with the decline being particularly pronounced in the first half of this year. Although subsequent data will be released, the industry generally anticipates that seed drill sales for the entire year of 2025 will struggle to match the 2024 level. Competitive Landscape Reshuffle: The Top Players Shrink, Small and Medium-Sized Brands Grab Market Share

The widespread decline in sales has also profoundly impacted the competitive landscape. Of the 307 companies with sales records, only 18 achieved sales exceeding 1,000 units. More importantly, the combined market share of the top ten companies decreased by 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a trend of dispersal in market concentration. This suggests that during the industry downturn, small and medium-sized brands appear to have gained relatively more opportunities, while the advantages of traditional giants have weakened.

Regional Divergence: Henan Stands Out While Key Sales Areas Seed Sales Cut in Half

Regional performance reveals a stark contrast:

Henan Province was the lone bright spot, leading the nation with sales of 14,742 units and achieving a slight year-on-year increase.

In contrast, other provinces, traditionally major consumers of seeding machinery, experienced a precipitous decline: core regions like Shandong, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia all saw sales declines exceeding 40%. Among them, Shandong's sales fell by 7,751 units, Inner Mongolia by 6,406 units, and Anhui by 5,306 units. The collective "stagnation" of these major sales areas is the key factor dragging down the national data.

‌

Major machine models are experiencing a "downturn across the board": All three categories are affected.

Regarding specific machine models, the three dominant market categories—single-seed (precision) seed drills, hole drills, and film (belt) seed drills—while still leading the market, have also suffered significant sales declines, with declines of 32.16%, 40.32%, and 37.05%, respectively, nearly totaling their losses. The market is clearly experiencing a decline in both volume and price.

Deeper Reflection: Behind the Cold Winter, There Are Signs of Change

The "cold winter" sweeping the seeding machinery market, while superficially marked by a sharp drop in sales, reflects deeper industry changes:

Impact of policy rhythm: The lag in subsidy disclosure is one objective factor.

Intensified competition and model shifts: During a market downturn, competition inevitably intensifies. The dispersion of market concentration indicates a reshaping of the competitive landscape, which may be accompanied by price wars or innovative service models. Changing Regional Demand Structure: Henan's counter-cyclical growth and sharp declines in other key sales regions reflect widening differences in agricultural development priorities, crop structure adjustments, and purchasing power levels across regions.

Product Lifecycle and Innovation Pressure: The sharp decline in sales of core models may indicate saturation of demand for existing mainstream products or pressure to upgrade. The market calls for innovative products that are more efficient, more intelligent, or more adaptable to new agricultural requirements.